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via GIPHY Not to mention, the metric they were using to gauge a male dater’s profile effectiveness (“women met per attempt”) is a wildly varying and unbounded metric; one guy with a particularly interesting photo that gets one unsolicited message per day could have easily made their whole result. In data science, we know it can be difficult to find consistent trends even between visitors of the same website from one week to the next.Is it likely that trends found among a very specific niche of male daters long ago — those who chose to upload only one photo and no profile text to Ok Cupid in 2009 — could translate to a viable Tinder strategy for all men in 2017?For instance, it’s possible that the men in the top 20% of attractiveness were attractive and smiling, and the men in the bottom 20% of attractiveness were unattractive and not smiling.This leaves only smiling ugly guys at the bottom of the spectrum and grumpy hot guys at the top, making it look like being grumpy makes you hot.
Finally, we used Photofeeler attractiveness ratings to gauge the success of the various photo types (smiling, not smiling, eye contact, no eye contact). our own: Ok Cupid’s data said that not smiling and not making eye contact was better. They didn’t have to “fear” anything because, in all likelihood, they first ran their numbers with these populations included.Building on the previous point, there’s the question of how many pictures of men not smiling and not making eye contact were in the data set to begin with.Giving Ok Cupid the benefit of the doubt, let’s say their sample was 50/50 male and female (even though it would likelier have skewed female). This is a good sample if you’re measuring a condition that will be present in all of the photos.But the number of men who were not smiling and looking away (especially in early 2010, before Ok Cupid advised it) would be in the hundreds at most.Even today, less than 15% of photos have no eye contact.